The 2026-27 season is only a week old, but the MVP conversation has already started. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has won the award two years in a row, and no player has won three straight since Larry Bird in the 1980s. Can anyone stop him?
Here’s our early MVP ladder. It’s based on what we expect over a full season, plus the first week of games.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Thunder
Why he’s No. 1: SGA has averaged about 31 points on 53% shooting over the last four seasons, and Oklahoma City is expected to win 55-plus games again. Voters love the best player on one of the best teams, and that’s exactly what he is.
What could stop him: Voter fatigue. After two straight wins, voters may look for a new name.
2. Victor Wembanyama, Spurs
Why he’s here: Wembanyama finished third in MVP voting last season and won Defensive Player of the Year. The Spurs won 62 games and reached the Finals. He opened this season with games like 23 points and 7 rebounds against Dallas, and his impact on defense is unlike anyone else’s.
What could stop him: The Spurs started 1-2. They’ll need to win a lot to give him the "best player on the best team" case.
3. Nikola Jokić, Nuggets
Why he’s here: Jokić is a three-time MVP who could finish in the top two for a seventh straight season. Against New Orleans he had 35 points, 15 rebounds and 10 assists. A triple-double machine with elite efficiency is always in this race.
What could stop him: Denver’s depth. If the Nuggets don’t win enough games, voters may lean elsewhere.
4. Luka Dončić, Lakers
Why he’s here: With LeBron James now in Philadelphia, the Lakers are fully Luka’s team. He’s the favorite for the scoring title, which he has won two of the last three seasons, and L.A. started 2-0.
What could stop him: He has never won MVP. The Lakers need to finish near the top of the West.
5. Cade Cunningham, Pistons
Why he’s here: Cunningham finished fifth in MVP voting last season, and Detroit won 60 games. If the Pistons are the best team in the East again, he’ll be in the mix.
The next five
| Player | Team | The case |
|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | Heat | Two-time MVP with seven All-NBA First Team selections; needs the Heat (0-3) to turn it around |
| Jalen Brunson | Knicks | Reigning Finals MVP; a top-five scoring season and the East’s top seed would make him a real candidate |
| Anthony Edwards | Timberwolves | Has averaged about 28 points the last two seasons; LaMelo Ball’s arrival could free him up |
| Jayson Tatum | Celtics | First full season after Achilles surgery, now the clear focal point in Boston |
| Donovan Mitchell | Cavaliers | Has averaged about 26 points in four years in Cleveland on a team that wants the East’s No. 1 seed |
Early-season names to watch
- Joel Embiid, 76ers: A 28-11-10 triple-double in a 3-0 start. If he stays healthy, he’s a former MVP on a contender.
- Devin Booker, Suns: Scored 43 points against Golden State.
- Jamal Murray, Nuggets: Dropped 42 against New Orleans. Not a typical MVP candidate, but he’s off to a great start.
How NBA MVP voting works
A panel of 100 media members votes at the end of the regular season. Each voter ranks their top five players. Since 2023-24, players must play at least 65 games to be eligible for MVP and most other major awards, so staying healthy matters.
We’ll update this ladder throughout the season. See our latest NBA power rankings for how the teams stack up.
